Vastavam web: In the race to outpace developed economies, emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil suffered a setback this year and will outgrow them later than previously expected, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said. The Cebr consultancy’s 2019 World Economic League Table was more downbeat on the global economy than last year’s outlook.
“For the medium term, we are roughly as optimistic as we were a year ago, but suspect the route to growth will be more bumpy than we had assumed 12 months ago,” said the report, which forecast the fortunes of 193 countries to 2033. It expects Brazil to overtake Italy in 2020, not 2018.
India would overtake Britain and France, probably in 2019, but possibly 2020, rather than in 2018 as it predicted a year ago. Britain would likely lose its place as then the sixth biggest economy to France next year due to Brexit-related disruption, but should regain that position by 2023. The Cebr also projected Ireland to be among the fastest growing economies in the euro zone next year, but said Brexit posed a big downside risk to that forecast. The volume of world trade growth is likely to be up 2.99 percent this year, less than two-thirds of the increase in 2017, the Cebr estimates.
The report’s forecasts chimed with a deepening sense that optimism about synchronized global growth was overcooked, and that markets got ahead of themselves.